Tutorials & FAQ
Learn how Was It Luck? works and understand the metrics behind the magic
How to read your Was It Luck? results
Was It Luck? turns completed Sleeper matchups into comparisons that the normal standings cannot show. The answers below define each result, demonstrate the calculation and explain what it cannot prove. For longer, fully worked explanations, use the methodology guide library.
Written by the Was It Luck? team. Reviewed 17 August 2026.
Background
This all started as a personal project when I was convinced I was getting extremely unlucky in my league. I naturally did what every sane and normal person does... I wrote a bunch of scripts to crunch the numbers and analyse the Fantasy data to prove my point. This led me to experimenting with visualising the data in a more friendly and appealing manner. Once I'd finished all my hard work, I figured that maybe others out there would find some use from my work. So here we are today, hope you enjoy the fruits of my pet project!
FYI: I was extremely unlucky - I knew it.
Mission Statement
At Was It Luck?, we believe that understanding the fine line between a lucky win and a skilful strategy is key to mastering the art of fantasy football. Our mission is to provide you with analysis, data-driven insights, and a touch of humor to make sense of your league's happenings.
Go deeper than the quick answers
The FAQ is designed for fast definitions. The supporting guides document the calculations in more detail, including edge cases and interpretation limits:
Frequently Asked Questions
Effective Wins estimates how a team's weekly scoring performed against the rest of its league, independent of the scheduled opponent. Here is how it is calculated:
- We look at each game week and determine how many wins a team would have achieved if they had played against every other team in the league that week, instead of just their scheduled opponent.
- For each game week, we divide the number of other teams you would have beaten by the number of other teams in the league.
- Effective Wins is the sum of these ratios across all the game weeks.
Example:
Imagine a fantasy football league with 10 teams over 3 game weeks:
- Week 1: Team A would've beaten 3 of the 9 other teams. Ratio = 3/9
- Week 2: Team A would've beaten 6 of the 9 other teams. Ratio = 6/9
- Week 3: Team A would've beaten 1 of the 9 other teams. Ratio = 1/9
Effective Wins = 3/9 + 6/9 + 1/9 = 1.11
Under a uniform random-opponent comparison, Team A's three weekly scores produce 1.11 Effective Wins.
Stolen Wins is the term we use to quantify how many more or fewer wins a team has achieved in the season compared with their Effective Wins. It describes the effect of matchup timing on the official record; it does not isolate or prove manager skill.
Example - Positive Stolen Wins (Lucky):
Team B after 14 weeks is in the playoffs with 12 wins. However, they were lucky in a couple game weeks, beating the only other team they could've beaten. Their Effective Wins is actually 9.
Stolen Wins = Actual Wins - Effective Wins = 12 - 9 = +3
This means Team B has "stolen" 3 wins, indicating they benefited from luck or an easier schedule.
Example - Negative Stolen Wins (Unlucky):
Team A after 14 weeks has just clinched the playoffs with 7 wins. However, they were unlucky in a couple games, losing to the only team that could beat them. Their Effective Wins is actually 9.
Stolen Wins = 7 - 9 = -2
This means Team A has had 2 wins "stolen" from them due to bad luck or tougher matchups.
The current labels use league-wide rankings, including when the results table is visually grouped by division:
League-wide comparison:
- For each team we compare its league-wide rank based on Effective Wins and Points Scored with its league-wide rank based on actual wins and Points Scored.
- The Luckiest Manager is the manager with the highest actual rank compared to their effective rank.
- The Unluckiest Manager is the manager with the lowest actual rank compared to their effective rank.
In leagues with divisions, this may not match Sleeper's official seed order because commissioner rules can prioritise division winners or use custom tiebreakers. Sleeper's standings remain authoritative.
Example:
| Actual Rank | Team | Wins | Effective Rank | Eff Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team A | 14 | 4 | 10 | +3 (Lucky!) |
| 2 | Team B | 13 | 1 | 13 | -1 |
| 3 | Team C | 12 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| 4 | Team D | 11 | 2 | 12 | -2 (Unlucky!) |
Team A is the luckiest (ranked 1st but should be 4th). Team D is the unluckiest (ranked 4th but should be 2nd).
Calendar Swap is a fun "what-if" tool that lets you see how the standings would change if two teams swapped their schedules.
Each team keeps their weekly scores, but they face the opponents that the other team faced. This helps answer questions like: "Would I have made the playoffs if I had your schedule?"
It's a great way to see how much schedule luck affected the final standings!
Hopefully not a lot of people have to ask this question... but if you are one of them...
This is a reference to the TV show The League. It aired in 2009 for a total of 7 seasons and is a show about a group of friends playing Fantasy Football together.
Starting to sound familiar? Well, this show was vital in motivating my friends and I to start playing Fantasy NFL, it only seemed right to pay it tribute!
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